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Episode 1006: Sullivan's Travels
Date January 13, 2017 Summary Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan talk about the Mariners' moves while Jeff was away, then answer listener emails about Mike Trout, Barry Bonds, the home run spike, taking pitches, fans on the field, and more. Topics * Mike Trout * Teams, players, and family members reading baseball writers' articles * Barry Bonds * Offensive/home run spike * Long plate appearances * Fan on the field Intro Jethro Tull, "A Song for Jeffrey" Outro Steely Dan, "Home at Last" Banter * Jeff has returned from vacation in Patagonia after 30 hours of travel. * Recent Mariners trades * Jerry Dipoto's eagerness to make trades Email Questions * Nick: "Do you guys think Mike Trout knows who Jeff is? Based on the sheer volume of his Mike Trout output, I would find it strange yet unsurprising (based on what we know of Trout) if he had never heard of Jeff. I know most players probably couldn't care less what is written about them on the web but this seems like a particularly unique case. Do you think Mike Trout would be better off if he did know who Jeff was? I mean obviously he would be, in general, if he followed him on Twitter but do you think he would potentially increase his ability for self-reflection of his flaws as a player if he read Jeff's analysis of him? I assume he's getting this information in spades from the Angels anyway but the team has a lot to worry about and it's always nice to have different perspectives on your performance." * Mitch: "If the league hadn't colluded against Barry Bonds after 2007 and he had signed with an AL team to DH, how many more years do you think he would have played, and how many career home runs would he have ended up with?" * Kyle (Bradenton, FL): "I was wondering how much weight teams put into last seasons HR spike in their offseason planning. Dave Cameron wrote a piece the other day about the over correction of the market for bat-first 1B/DH types and the glut of them remaining in free agency. Have teams also over corrected for the HR rate? What happens if that rate turns out to be a blip on the radar and power returns to it's pre-2016 level? Will teams be forced to trade for power at the deadline because their offseason plans factored in the 2016 HR rate? * Michael: "What kind of value does a high pitches per plate appearance have for a batter? Obviously seeing more pitches leads to more walks, but also more strikeouts, so I imagine that there is a certain type of profile which it is a valuable asset. I'm also wondering in terms of the fatigue aspect for the opposing pitcher, is it ever really important to try to fatigue a pitcher (or a whole staff), or is it simply too much to worry about?" * Will: "Somewhat related to the past conversation of how many fans on the field happen per season, what scenario of fan on the field would engender the most crowd support? I say a person with their dog, a scenario I wouldn't mind achieving myself when I am of retirement age." Stat Blast Note: This segment was not yet officially called the Stat Blast, but took the place of the Baseball Reference Play Index segment. Going back to 2002, what have the best offensive weeks been by players according to wRC+ (minimum 20 PA)? 2016 season: Mike Trout had the best week with a .405 wRC+ during a single week. Since 2002, the best offensive week was Barry Bonds from April 12-18, 2004 when bonds had a .568 wRC+ in 21 PA. Notes * This is Jeff Sullivan's first full episode as a co-host of Effectively Wild. * Baseball Reference is no longer sponsoring the podcast, however the stat segment/play index will continue. * Jeff: "I don't think Mike Trout has a whole lot to worry about about making himself better." "I think my name has probably been said in the vicinity of Mike Trout before. I think the probability is as close as possible to 0% that Mike Trout has retained that name." "I cannot imagine that Mike Trout could give two heaps of crap about who I am or the things that I have to say." * Jeff tells the story of Adrian Beltre superfan "Red" from when Beltre was on the Mariners. Beltre himself was appreciative of the attention, but his wife was petrified. * Jeff wrote briefly about a Korean player, and he got an email from the player's agent saying that four or five teams contacted him. * Barry Bonds' Marcel wOBA projections (see links below) for 2008-10: .380, .373, .364. Marcel also projected enough home runs to take him to 800. * Lenny Harris is mentioned, who would become a frequent topic during Jeff's early episodes. * Jeff suspects that teams haven't altered their rosters because it's unclear whether the rise in home runs will hold up or is just temporary. Ben cites an Eno Sarris article (see links below) which confirms this theory. * Jeff feels that pitchers are so good that fatiguing a single pitcher doesn't help much, but the long plate appearance will increase the chances of the pitcher making a mistake out of frustration. Jeff wonders at what point a batter who guarantees a long PA will stop being enjoyable to watch. Ben and Jeff guess around seven pitches. * Jeff suspects that a player's parent who has just completed a military tour of duty sneaking onto the field to surprise their son would get a standing ovation, and it'd go onto the MLB highlight reel. Ben suggests a sweet old lady, a cute kid, or a former player. * Jeff jokingly wonders if Mike Trout ever attends an amateur baseball game and thinks, "I could do better than these guys," and considers just taking the field and kicking out an existing player. Ben suggests a guy with a jet pack or floating in on a parachute. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 1006: Sullivan's Travels * Marcel Projections * The Market for Offense Might Be Overcorrecting by Dave Cameron * Today's Managers on Adjusting to the Home-Run Surge by Eno Sarris Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes